With data center electricity demand skyrocketing, thanks in large part to the computing requirements of artificial intelligence (AI), analysts are seeing increasing interest in nuclear power. Recent reports by Gartner and Deloitte highlight the potential for nuclear power to mitigate burgeoning power shortcomings.
That deficit is substantial. As many as 40% of existing data centers will be “operationally constrained” by a shortage of power by 2027, Gartner predicts. The research firm also estimates that the power needed to run incremental servers for AI in 2027 will be 2.6x that required to run the AI servers added in 2023.
“The explosive growth of new hyperscale data centers to implement genAI is creating an insatiable demand for power that will exceed the ability of utility providers to expand their capacity fast enough,” wrote Bob Johnson, vice president analyst at Gartner, in an October 2024 research report. “In turn, this threatens to disrupt energy availability and lead to shortages, which will limit the growth of new data centers for genAI and other uses from 2026.”
Johnson made an even more grim prediction this month: “Driven by insatiable generative AI demands, demand for data center power will lead to rationing and blackouts within two to four years.”
Deloitte, meanwhile, estimates that by 2035, U.S. data center power demands could be five times that of 2024.
Both organizations agree that nuclear power is a key way to mitigate the risk.
In its new report, Deloitte said that its analysis of figures from the World Nuclear Association, the American Nuclear Society, the U.S. Department of Energy, and others showed that new nuclear power could potentially meet about 10% of the projected increase in data center demand over the next decade, assuming capacity is also significantly expanded by between 35GW and 62GW, and 30% of the expansion is earmarked for data centers.
“Nuclear energy presents a potential solution for meeting some of the growing electricity demands of data centers, with its reliable and clean energy profile,” Deloitte’s report said, noting five key advantages of the technology:
- Reliable baseload power: Nuclear reactors operate 24/7, regardless of the weather, providing the reliable power so important to data centers. In addition, Deloitte said, “Their capacity factor, exceeding 92.5%, outperforms other sources like natural gas (56%) and renewables like wind (35%) and solar (25%).”
- High energy density: A small amount of fuel generates a lot of power, which minimizes the need for fuel storage and transportation. “This efficiency can translate to a smaller physical footprint and enhanced sustainability,” Deloitte said.
- Scalable power output: A full-sized reactor typically generates 800 megawatts (MW) or more of electricity, which accommodates the needs of large data centers.
- Low carbon emissions: Nuclear power plants produce virtually no greenhouse gas emissions during operation.
- Enhanced land use efficiency: Compared to other energy sources, nuclear power plants require relatively little land.
Gartner’s Johnson echoed these advantages, and also predicted that nuclear energy, and small modular reactors (SMRs) in particular, will “provide a viable answer” to the question of what to do when electricity demand exceeds supply. They can, he said, “ensure independence from grid power fluctuations by providing dedicated on-site power for large data centers.”
However, both Gartner and Deloitte also highlighted challenges in the move to more nuclear power, including time and cost overruns in construction, regulatory issues, and the need to recruit a fresh workforce (60% of current workers in the industry are aged 30-54, and 17% are over 55). The fact that SMRs are still very new, and may not be commercially available for 8-10 years, adds to the complexity.
Gartner predicts that the first SMR-powered data centers will be operational by 2030, providing sustainable power completely independent of the utilities’ distribution grids.
“Now is the time to become familiar with what it will take to construct an SMR-based dedicated power station for a data center or cluster of data centers,” Johnson wrote. “Gartner recommends planning for future data center power options by including provisions for SMR deployment as a dedicated site power solution in long-term objectives.”
He added: “It is important for organizations to regularly monitor SMR technology readiness, provider development activities and regulatory changes, to understand how they might impact future data center operations and energy sourcing. At the same time, they should assess the various SMR alternatives and the strengths and weaknesses of each.”
Source:: Network World