What is 6G? Well, it’s not clear yet. It may end up being a major technological leap, but it may also end up being more like 5G.
This is the conclusion of Björn Fägersten, CEO of the analysis company Politea and senior researcher at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, who has just written a report on behalf of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the geopolitics of 6G and Europe’s role.
“But we can expect it to be faster, with more connected devices and less latency,” he says.
These are characteristics that are also crucial for the development of autonomous vehicles, smart cities and advanced manufacturing. Couple that with technologies such as AI and quantum computing, and the effect is even more powerful.
Plans are being made
Although the full potential of 5G hasn’t been seen yet, 6G plans have already started to emerge around the world in the form of policy documents and various visions from telecom industry players, and it’s also an area that technology rivals the US and China are keeping an eye on.
For the EU, 6G is special because telecoms and connectivity is a European strength. Well, actually Nordic, with companies like Ericsson and Nokia. And this time it’s up to them to take advantage of it, too. Because there’s a lot to be gained from managing a technology transition like this well – investing in a winning standard and rolling it out quickly.
“We saw this in Sweden with the 4G rollout, which was seen as very successful and which is largely the basis for many of our unicorns today,” says Fägersten.
“The 5G rollout, on the other hand, was generally not as fast and coordinated in Europe as one might have wished. And there are many who are still looking for winning business strategies there. So there is a market effect that is wanted when it comes to 6G,” Fägersten says.
Difficult geopolitics to navigate
With the new geopolitical landscape that has emerged since Donald Trump became president, the way forward becomes more difficult to navigate for Europe.
The report outlines three scenarios for how the EU could deal with 6G. The scenarios depend on how much the EU countries cooperate with each other, how much the EU manages to, or wants to, cooperate with the US, and how high the level of conflict will be between the US and China.
In one scenario, the EU would create a united front with the US, agreeing on things like the security of the 6G network and industrial issues where US tech companies would have a role in the technology. This could include building Elon Musk’s satellite system in a more integrated way into future mobile systems, for example.
This scenario could benefit both the US and Europe, as there are countries that prefer to support a European approach rather than Chinese, and it could therefore be good for the US to have a close ally in this area of technology.
At the same time, that’s not really what we see right now. “That scenario was probably the goal of the cooperation between the EU and the Biden administration with the Trade and Technology Council. But given how the US views Europe – which we can read about in the Signal chats – it looks quite distant,” Fägersten says.
“In addition, many European countries are beginning to reassess the vulnerability we ourselves feel from being completely locked into American technical systems.”
Unity or fragmentation
Another scenario is that Europeans stick together and move towards some kind of tech sovereignty where they build more themselves, provide good conditions for their own capacity to grow, and are more prepared to protect their interests with the necessary means.
This may involve protecting certain important industries from takeovers, but also setting up various protection mechanisms not only against China but also the United States. That direction is seen more broadly in technology development with Eurostack, for example. “It is also the unifying force in Europe that has momentum right now,” Fägersten says.
In a third scenario, the EU fails to unite and starts competing with each other. “Some countries may feel more comfortable being able to live with certain vulnerabilities in relation to China and others in relation to the United States. And that gives rather poor prospects for a common market,” Fägersten says.
It’s important to note: These scenarios should not be seen as truths. Rather, that are a way of pointing out the different directions that developments can take. Often, we trade a little in the middle of them, but it can be a good exercise to refine, Fägersten notes.
Protecting Swedish interests
For Sweden, it is important to think about 6G also in terms of economic security. The US may perceive it as a geopolitical vulnerability that US tech giants use technology provided by others, according to the report.
“When we move data and store it on AWS or email with Google and so on, their business concept is based on that connectivity and it may be that they are trying to make themselves independent of it in one way or another,” says Fägersten.
Therefore, Sweden must start thinking well in advance about what vulnerabilities it is prepared to accept, says Fägersten. “How can we gain strength from being part of the EU? I think a plan is needed here.”
Nordic coordination
Fägersten thinks the Nordic region should coordinate so that there is something to fall back on if it is not possible to reach agreement in the EU.
“In the telecoms sector, we could work more closely together from a Nordic platform without sabotaging the EU’s work, for example by coordinating roll-out timelines and trying to create an advanced, strong, regional area where there is a relatively broad consensus on technology and political issues. I think it would be worth exploring whether there is a potential for cooperation within the Nordic region that perhaps has not really been captured.”
However, there is a case for the EU to actually unite around 6G and a common plan on how to secure the technology – as the number of devices increases, so does the number of attack surfaces – around standardization, a rapid roll-out and a focus on maintaining the lead in the technology area. Technology goes hand in hand with the defense perspective.
“There is a momentum there now. Not just about investing in defense in general, but also precisely because in the armament that is underway, we also want to build more modern and there 6g is a critical technology. There is a synergy between rearmament and trying to maintain control over a technology that is a European area of strength,” says Björn Fägersten.
This story originally appeared on Computer Sweden.
Source:: Network World