The construction of massive data center campuses is booming, with hyperscalers, colocation providers and large enterprises developing new capacity to support the exploding requirements of AI.
This rapidly escalating demand is raising concerns that the traditional power grid will not be able to keep up, and that this lack of capacity will actually inhibit data center expansion. At the same time, organizations can’t just automatically plug into the traditional power grid anymore for another reason: They’re under pressure to obtain power in a sustainable manner, which creates another set of challenges.
The Uptime Institute has identified three strategies that organizations can deploy to run new data centers with carbon-free (or at least low-carbon) power, and presented those findings in a recent webinar that featured Andy Lawrence, executive director of research, and Jay Dietrich, research director of sustainability.
These are not normal times
There has always been growth in data center capacity but never anything like this. Uptime estimates that data center growth measured in kilowatt hours of demand will spike from 400 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 1,000 TWh hours in 2030. And some estimates go as high as 1,400 TWh, Dietrich said.
Interestingly, Uptime projects that non-AI driven demand will drive a good chunk of that growth. The requirements for standard data center compute will effectively double over the next few years – from 365 TWh in 2023 to 750 TWh in 2030 – accounting for 75% of total demand.
AI requirements will increase at a staggering rate: AI inference requirements will skyrocket from 17.5 TWh to 162.5 TWh, while AI training will surge from 17.5 TWh to 87.5 TWh, according to Uptime. In all, AI demands go from 35 TWh to 250 TWh between 2023 and 2023.
Because of the strain that data centers (as well as other electrification sources, such as electric vehicles) are putting on the grid, “the data center industry needs to develop new power supply strategies to support growth plans,” Dietrich said.
Here are the underling factors that play into the three strategies outlined by Uptime.
Scale creates new opportunities: It’s not just that more data centers are being built, but the data centers under construction are fundamentally different in terms of sheer magnitude. For example, a typical enterprise data center might require between 10 and 25 megawatts of power. Today, the hyperscalers are building data centers in the 250-megawatt range and a large data center campus could require 1,000 megawatts of power.
Data centers not only require a reliable source of power, they also require backup power in the form of generators. Dietrich pointed out that if a data center operator builds out enough backup capacity to support 250 megawatts of demand, they’re essentially building a new, on-site power plant.
On the one hand, that new power plant requires permitting, it’s costly, and it requires highly training staffers to operate. On the other hand, it provides an opportunity. Instead of letting this asset sit around unused except in an emergency, organizations can leverage these power plants to generate energy that can be sold back to the grid. Dietrich described this arrangement as a win-win that enables the data center to generate revenue, and it helps the utility to gain a new source of power.
Realistic expectations: Alternative energy sources like wind and solar, which are dependent on environmental factors, can’t technically or economically supply 100% of data center power, but they can provide a significant percentage of it. Organizations need to temper their expectations, Dietrich said.
Emerging energy sources: Beyond wind and solar, there are many exciting new technologies on the horizon that provide an alternative to fossil fuels. These include geothermal, nuclear energy, and a variety of battery options. But Dietrich said these won’t make a real impact for a good decade.
Complexity: Procuring power for a carbon-free or low-carbon data center is a complex endeavor that requires collaboration between energy retailers, project developers, utilities, industry regulators, and data center operators.
The role of natural gas: When it comes to building those on-site power plants for backup, Uptime says natural gas is preferable to diesel because it is easier to obtain permitting for and represents a more reliable supply. These on-site power plants can serve as a bridge to the day when geothermal, nuclear or solid oxide fuel cells become widely deployed.
Three paths on the road to carbon-free data centers
With those parameters and realities in mind, here are three strategies identified by Uptime for accelerating power availability for new data centers.
Source:: Network World